Economic and Scenario Modelling Expert

The Economic and Scenario Modelling Expert should have a Master’s degree or higher in Economics, Engineering, Energy, Transport, Finance, or a related field, with at least 15-20 years of relevant experience in economic, financial, transport, energy, or scenario modelling. The expert should demonstrate experience in electric mobility, transport decarbonisation, EV deployment, and charging infrastructure, with strong capabilities in total cost of ownership, cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, lifecycle costing, forecasting, sensitivity analysis, and scenario development. Experience in assessing energy demand, GHG emissions, policy incentives, financing requirements, and investment pathways is required, together with proficiency in quantitative modelling tools such as Excel, Python, R, or similar platforms. Experience in Africa or Mozambique and Portuguese-language capability would be considered an advantage.

Requirements:

• Master’s degree or higher in Economics, Transport Economics, Engineering, Energy Economics, Finance, Statistics, or a related field.
• At least 15-20 years of relevant professional experience in economic, financial, transport, energy, or scenario modelling.
• Demonstrated experience in electric mobility, transport decarbonisation, EV deployment, charging infrastructure, or sustainable transport projects.
• Proven experience developing and applying economic, financial, demand, cost-benefit, and scenario models, including sensitivity and risk analysis.
• Strong experience in TCO, cost-benefit analysis, investment appraisal, financial viability, lifecycle costing, and economic impact assessment.
• Understanding of energy systems, electricity demand, GHG emissions, transport-energy linkages, and climate mitigation pathways.
• Strong quantitative skills and experience working with large datasets, forecasting, statistical analysis, and modelling software such as Excel, Python, R, MATLAB, or similar tools.
• Ability to assess the economic implications of EV incentives, taxation, subsidies, regulations, fuel pricing, electricity tariffs, and other policy instruments.
• Knowledge of investment requirements, financing structures, public-private investment, and climate/green financing is an advantage.
• Excellent ability to translate complex modelling outputs into clear technical reports, policy recommendations, presentations, and decision-support materials.

Responsabilities:

• Develop economic and financial models to assess the costs, benefits, and financial viability of electric mobility investments, including electric buses, taxis, motorcycles, private vehicles, and charging infrastructure.
• Develop baseline, business-as-usual, and electric-mobility transition scenarios, incorporating vehicle fleet growth, EV adoption rates, travel demand, charging infrastructure deployment, electricity prices, fuel prices, technology costs, and policy measures.
• Conduct total cost of ownership (TCO) and lifecycle cost analysis comparing electric vehicles with conventional internal-combustion vehicles, considering purchase costs, financing, fuel/electricity, maintenance, battery replacement, and residual values.
• Assess the economic and financial impacts of EV adoption, including fuel-cost savings, electricity demand, import substitution, investment requirements, operating costs, and potential impacts on households, operators, businesses, and government.
• Quantify GHG emissions and other environmental benefits associated with different electric-mobility scenarios and assess the economic value of emissions reductions where appropriate.
• Model charging infrastructure requirements, including investment needs, utilisation rates, charging demand, grid requirements, operating costs, and potential revenue models.
• Undertake sensitivity and risk analysis to test the effects of changes in fuel and electricity prices, EV costs, battery costs, exchange rates, interest rates, adoption rates, subsidies, taxes, and other key assumptions.
• Conduct cost-benefit and economic impact assessments of proposed electric mobility interventions, including subsidies, fiscal incentives, charging infrastructure programmes, fleet electrification, and regulatory measures.
• Estimate investment and financing requirements under different transition scenarios and identify potential financing gaps and opportunities for public and private-sector investment.
• Develop policy and investment recommendations based on modelling results, identifying economically efficient pathways for accelerating electric mobility while considering affordability, fiscal sustainability, energy-system impacts, and emissions reductions.